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World meat exports in 2025 are projected to be 23% higher than in the base period, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025. This figure represents a slowing down of trade growth; an annual rate of 2.3% compared to the average annual rate of 3.6% in the previous decade; this growth, however, represents nearly the same amount in volume. Growth in meat trade is higher than production growth: globally, despite the rapid expansion of domestic meat production in developing countries. Nevertheless, meat imports increase in the developing world, most notably poultry and bovine meat which together account for 80% of the additional meat traded in 2025 re lative to the base period.
Although by 2025 developed countries are still expected to account for slightly more than half of global meat exports, their share decreases steadily relative to the base period. Meat exports from the United States will capture more than a quarter of total trade expansion, while exports from the European Union will grow only marginally. The European Union has improved its access to Asian markets, but market competition from North and South America will prevent it from taking full advantage of this opportunity. Traditional exporting developing countries are expected to maintain a high share of the global meat trade. Brazil, but also Argentina, will benefit from the ongoing depreciation of their currencies. Brazil’s share of global exports will increase to 26%, contributing nearly half of the increase in global meat exports during the projection period. Import demand will be weak during the first years of the outlook period, mainly due to lower imports from the Russian Federation and China, but will strengthen later on. The most significant growth in import demand originates from Viet Nam, which captures a large share of additional imports for all meat types boosted by a strong economic growth. Africa is another fast growing importing region, albeit from a low base. Global import growth in volume terms is driven by poultry meat, the bulk of which is imported by developing countries. Developing countries will also trade between themselves the vast majority of all additional growth in bovine meat. However, developed countries will supply the bulk of additional trade on pigmeat, which is going almost entirely to the developing world. In other words, while bovine meat trade growth occurs more and more among developing countries, growth in pigmeat growth remains mostly within developed countries.
Brazil has increased its pigmeat exports to the Russian Federation, which has imposed import bans on certain traditional suppliers. Brazil’s increased market share of the Russian Federation’s pigmeat market is expected to be sustained in the medium term, or at least in part. It is also anticipated that Brazil will benefit from strong poultry demand from the developing world where diets are increasingly diversifying towards higher consumption levels of animal protein. Brazil’s poultry sector is highly competitive, and their products can compete in urban areas of the developing world with domestic producers.
Monday July 4, 2016/ FAO.
http://www.fao.org
