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World pig production: Chinese imports to fall to 2018 levels

In its latest “Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade” report on July 12, the USDA updated its estimates for 2024, forecasting world pork production to be very similar to that in 2023. It also estimated a sharp drop in China's pork imports, which would return to levels before the ASF outbreaks in 2018 and lead major exporters to seek alternative markets.

Evolution of pork imports in China 2010 - 2024 projected. Prepared by 333 Latin America with FAS - USDA data.

General context - Chinese imports

China's 2024 pork imports are forecast to decrease 21% year-over-year to 1.5 million tons (Mt), the lowest level since 2019. If this projection is realized, 2024 imports will return to levels similar to before the African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in China, which began affecting production in late 2018.

Despite lower projected imports, China is expected to remain the world's largest pork importer. At the peak of the ASF outbreaks in 2020, imports accounted for 13% of China's pork consumption. The share of imports in consumption has declined steadily since then as domestic production recovered from ASF and returned to pre-ASF levels in 2022. By 2024, China's pork production is projected to be 56% higher than in 2020 and imports in 2024 are projected to account for only 3% of consumption.

Due in part to abundant domestic supply, the low pork prices in China observed since early 2023 have weakened import demand. Reported average pork prices were 10% lower during the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023 and 56% lower than in the first quarter of 2020. For many major foreign suppliers, it is difficult for their exports to remain competitive in the Chinese market due to low domestic prices.

Major global pork suppliers to China, including the European Union, Brazil, and the United States, are expected to seek alternative markets. However, these markets will only partially offset lower demand from China. As a result, competition is expected to increase in other major import markets, including Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.

Global forecasts

World pork production in 2024 is expected to reach 116.3 Mt, a figure similar to that in 2023.

Global exports for 2024 are expected to grow by 3.2% compared to the previous year, going from 10.1 Mt to 10.4 Mt.

Updated estimates for the key world pig production figures in 2024, annual variations. Prepared by 333 Latin America with FAS - USDA data.

Imports are projected to reach a volume of 9.11 Mt in 2024, representing a decrease of 1.0% compared to 2023 (9.2 Mt).

Apparent consumption would decrease by 0.3% compared to 2023, from 115.5 Mt to 115.1 Mt.

Leading countries

China, which would account for 48.8% of world production, is expected to produce 56.8 Mt of pork, representing a decrease of 2.1% compared to 2023. China's pork import volume is expected to decrease by 20.9%, at 1.5 Mt.

The European Union's production is forecast to increase by 1.7% to 21.2 Mt, while its exports (3.15 Mt) would grow by 0.8% compared to 2023 (3.13 Mt). On the other hand, imports are estimated at 100,000 t, which represents a decrease of 7.4% compared to 2023.

The United States is expected to increase its production by 3.1% to 12.8 Mt, and exports are expected to increase by 6.2% to 3.3 Mt.

Japan would be the second largest importer of pork worldwide with 1.45 Mt, increasing by 1.0%.

Brazil is expected to increase its production volume by 2.5%, reaching 4.6 Mt. Exports are expected to reach 1.42 Mt, which would mean an increase of 0.4% compared to 2023.

Mexico's production is expected to increase by 2.1% to 1.6 Mt. On the other hand, it would drop to the third position in the world import ranking with a total of 1.41 Mt and a 4.1% growth compared to 2023.